Kevin Brinson

SUBMITTED PHOTO/Maria Errico

By Brian Gilliland

DOVER — It’s hardly been a chilly week, but the sustained above-90-degree temperatures used to define a heat wave aren’t expected until Thursday or Friday.

Those sweltering numbers are likely to last through the weekend, according to Kevin Brinson, the state’s climatologist and a trained meteorologist.

Then, in the early part of next week, a weak atmospheric front is expected to give the “heat dome” settling in the Northeast the push it needs to dissipate off the coast.

What’s behind that front is anyone’s guess at this point, said Mr. Brinson, who is also a University of Delaware professor and the director of the Delaware Environmental Observing System.

“It could knock it back, or we could go back to the 90s. It’s all part of the ebb and flow of the atmosphere,” he said.

According to the National Weather Service, highs in Dover will fluctuate between 88 and 98 degrees Thursday through Monday, with the warmest day being Sunday.

And, in terms of heat waves in the First State, what’s unusual about this one is the timing, as it is generally early in the year for these conditions.

“In the northeastern United States, we do get heat waves pretty much every summer but not until July or August. Last year, we had a six-day heat wave, and we had an eight-day heat wave a couple of years ago,” Mr. Brinson said.

He added that he doesn’t believe the incoming weather will last more than a week, but it could be close to six days. He also said he thinks it will be hot but doesn’t expect record-breaking temps.

“It’s not insignificant for us,” he noted. “But we aren’t looking at record temperatures; we would need more than 100 degrees for that. It all comes down to where the high pressure is located.”

As of Tuesday, he said, the high-pressure system trapping the heat was closer to Vermont and New Hampshire than it was to Delaware. But that situation is set to change over the weekend.

“The East Coast is under a ridge of high pressure, with lots of southerly air flow, which allows the warm air to build,” Mr. Brinson said. “Friday is when we expect the dome to expand over the mid-Atlantic,” letting 2024’s first heat wave to take hold.

Looking forward, “it seems to indicate there are some warm months ahead. Every month so far in 2024 has been warmer than usual, and it’s only the beginning of summer,” he said. “Do I think we will have multiple heat waves this summer? I don’t have an answer, but it is something to keep an eye on.”