Tigers still waiting for high draft picks to lead to victories

A sign that your rebuild hasn't been going well: The Detroit Tigers just picked in the top five of the draft for the fifth time in six years.

Detroit had a roller coaster of a week. The Tigers lost twice to a terrible Oakland team but threw a combined no-hitter against Toronto's powerful lineup. The bottom line, though, is that Detroit is 11 games under .500 entering the All-Star break and appears on its way to a ninth straight season of missing the playoffs.

A couple years ago, the Tigers went 77-85 and looked as if they were on the rise. They'd drafted right-hander Casey Mize No. 1 overall in 2018, followed by outfielder Riley Greene (No. 5 in 2019), infielder Spencer Torkelson (No. 1 in 2020) and right-hander Jackson Jobe (No. 3 in 2021).

But a 66-win season in 2022 left the Tigers picking third this year — and with a new team president. They took high school outfielder Max Clark.

Mize, Greene and Torkelson all reached the majors with a good deal of fanfare, but Mize has made only two starts since the end of 2021 because of Tommy John surgery, and Torkelson has hit .215 in 197 games.

In fairness to Torkelson, four of the top six picks in 2020 haven't even reached the majors yet — but the Detroit infielder's career wins above replacement number is below zero, according to Baseball Reference. And Jobe has battled injury issues and has pitched only 10 1/3 innings in 2023 in the minors.

Greene, at least, is hitting .305 this year, and infielder Colt Keith is off to a sensational start at Detroit's Triple-A affiliate.

The other team that's made a slew of top-five picks lately is faring much better at the moment. The Baltimore Orioles have the third-best record in the game behind All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, the No. 1 choice in the 2019 draft. And the Orioles' other recent high picks look promising:

— Outfielder Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 pick in 2020, is hitting .323 at Triple-A.

— Outfielder Colton Cowser, the No. 5 pick in 2021, was recently promoted to the majors.

— Shortstop Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 pick in 2022, is baseball's top prospect according to MLB Pipeline.

It's certainly possible that Baltimore's elite prospects will have their own growing pains, but the Orioles are contenders this year and their future looks bright — while Detroit, with plenty of its own high picks, is still waiting for real progress.

AROUND THE BASES

Cincinnati rookie Elly De La Cruz — No. 2 behind Holliday on that MLB Pipeline ranking — hit for the cycle last month. On Saturday, he ran for the cycle.

De La Cruz stole second, third and home in succession in the seventh inning of an 8-5 win over Milwaukee.

TRIVIA TIME

Who was the last No. 1 overall draft pick to win Rookie of the Year honors?

RISING

The Seattle Mariners enter the break just a game over .500, but with a run differential of plus-36, they've probably been a bit unlucky so far. The Mariners have won seven of their last nine against Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Houston, so things may be starting to come together for them.

FALLING

The New York Yankees took the first two games of their home series against Baltimore, but they've dropped four of five since then, including a 14-1 rout at the hands of the Orioles. New York fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson after Sunday’s 7-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs, which left the Yankees a game behind the final wild card in the American League.

LINE OF THE WEEK

Minnesota's Pablo López struck out 12 in a four-hit shutout of Kansas City on Wednesday night. He had a stretch of six straight strikeouts during the Twins' 4-0 victory.

It's no wonder he was added to the AL All-Star roster as a replacement.

COMEBACK OF THE WEEK

The Tigers completed their topsy turvy week by squandering a two-run, ninth-inning lead against Toronto on Sunday. With two outs and nobody on, the Blue Jays had just a 1.9% chance of winning, according to Baseball Savant, but Matt Chapman drew a walk and Danny Jansen followed with a homer to tie the game at 3. Toronto went on to a 4-3 victory in 10 innings.

TRIVIA ANSWER

Houston picked Carlos Correa with the top pick in 2012, and he was the AL Rookie of the Year three years later.

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Follow Noah Trister at https://twitter.com/noahtrister

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