By Mike Finney

DOVER — The Great Storm of 1962, which wreaked havoc in coastal areas across Delaware, can happen again — and more frequently — if efforts do not intensify to combat climate change, weather experts warn.

Conditions are ripe for a repeat of the catastrophic nor’easter that took place in Delaware 60 years ago, killing seven and leaving millions of dollars in damage in its wake.

“Climate change, coupled with increased development and other factors, is undoubtedly a recipe for catastrophic events like the Storm of ’62,” said Jeff Sands, spokesman for the Delaware Emergency Management Agency. “The First State is first in flatness, with the lowest mean elevation of all states, and first in sea level rise, rising faster than anywhere on the Atlantic coast.

“The ingredients for catastrophic storms are here without question. That is one of the reasons we spend so much time encouraging people to prepare for emergencies. Preparede.org is a great resource to learn more about how to do just that.”

Jesse Hayden, administrator for the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control’s Shoreline and Waterway Management Section, said citizens are beginning to take notice — and action.

“The biggest change, I think, in the past couple of decades has been awareness of flood risk, coastal hazard risk and climate change,” Mr. Hayden said. “There’s been big pushes from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and from the state to get the information out there, so that folks are aware of the risk.

“We’re continually updating new information to help plan for storm risks, especially in light of climate change and sea level rise. We want to make sure that folks are aware of their exposure to hazards today and potential exposure in the future.”

Events such as Tropical Storm Isaias, which took place Aug. 4, 2020, have become more frequent in recent years, and scientists warn that the increase in tornadic activity in Delaware, along with record-high temperatures and more powerful storms, are a result of humans’ environmental neglect of the planet over the course of many years.

Isaias spawned off a record-breaking tornado for Delaware, impacting areas from Dover to Middletown with a zigzagging 29.2-mile path of destruction.

Dr. Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the extreme weather in the First State over the past couple of years is far from normal.

“In Delaware, communities are directly exposed to severe flooding and worsening tropical storms, driven by climate change and rising temperatures,” Dr. Dahl said. “These extreme weather events fueled by climate change are not normal and are only going to increase in frequency and severity.

“We need big, bold investments to protect vulnerable communities, reduce pollution and stop this problem at the source.”

World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Petteri Taalas, upon the Feb. 28 release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, said, “Our atmosphere today is on steroids, doped with fossil fuels. This is already leading to stronger, longer and more frequent extreme weather events. Climate change-induced disasters come with high human and economic impacts.”

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres called the report an “atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”

“Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone — now,” Mr. Guterres said. “Many ecosystems are at the point of no return — now. Unchecked carbon pollution is forcing the world’s most vulnerable on a frog march to destruction — now.”

In addition, data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals that severe weather is becoming more frequent and more devastating at all corners of the globe.

NOAA reports that the period from 1980-2021 saw an annual average of 7.4 “billion-dollar” weather/climate events.

When it looked at only the five most recent years, the annual average grew to 17.2 such events. Last year alone delivered 20 of them.

2021 was also the sixth-warmest on record.

“From a geologist standpoint, we know sea level is rising, and the fact that the (Storm of ‘62) was 60 years ago, you can see that sea level is higher now than it was then,” said Dr. Kelvin Ramsey of the Delaware Geological Survey. “This will have a significant impact, and as sea levels continue to rise, there will be effects on all fronts.”

Delaware crafts Climate Action Plan

The Climate Action Plan that Gov. John Carney released Nov. 4, 2021, identified five key areas in which to minimize greenhouse gas emissions and seven areas on which state agencies can focus to improve resilience to climate impacts, including sea level rise, warmer temperatures, and more intense and frequent storms.

With most of Delaware — the lowest-lying state in the country — sitting around sea level and many communities having been built near the Delaware Bay and Atlantic Ocean, the state is prone to routine natural disasters that occur when serious storms churn up the East Coast.

Shorelines are impacted, as are lives and communities when housing and businesses are destroyed.

Bill Nelson, an administrator for NASA, said the sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is expected to climb 10 to 12 inches on average by 2050.

“You can see that, in the next 30 years, we could equal the total rise that we’ve seen over the past hundred years, and it’s going to pose a major challenge in coastal cities. Of course, it’s not just the Atlantic or the Gulf. It’s also the Pacific, as well.

“The science is very clear, and that means it’s past time to take action to address this climate crisis. Climate change is causing sea levels to rise, ocean surface temperatures to warm and moisture to build in the atmosphere, and all of these facts are leading to more intense and destructive storms.”

Shawn M. Garvin, secretary of DNREC, joined Gov. Carney in releasing the state’s ambitious Climate Action Plan near the end of last year,

“Delaware is already feeling the effects of climate change, and many of these effects are projected to worsen over the next few decades,” Mr. Garvin said. “The Climate Action Plan provides a road map of strategies and actions that state agencies can take to minimize emissions and maximize resilience to climate change.”

Gov. Carney said the tourism industry is one that brings large sums of money into the state, and it is being compromised by global warming.

“Climate change threatens our $3.5 billion tourism industry and 44,000 jobs, our $8 billion agricultural industry, the health of our citizens and the financial well-being of our local, county and state governments,” he said.

“The strategies in the Climate Action Plan can be implemented over time, as resources, data and partnerships develop.”

Forecasting for a ‘weather-ready nation’

Mr. Sands said that forecasting technology has improved greatly since the Storm of ’62, which, in turn, provides better notice of significant weather events and has the ability to save lives.

“In just 60 years, we have gone from no advanced notice for the Storm of ’62 to emergency alerts being sent to your cellphone,” he said. “But the pendulum swinging so far in the opposite direction creates its own set of challenges. With so much information available today, it becomes difficult to provide enough information without overwhelming the public.

“Warning about potential weather events that then turn out to sea or don’t have the maximum impact can create a lack of trust. Alert fatigue, from too many notifications, is also a serious concern, as people may then tune out the warnings. The National Weather Service continues to improve its alerting to strike that balance between too much and not enough.”

Officials from NWS met with a congressional panel in November to inform leaders that now is the time to prepare for escalating issues associated with global warming — particularly in forecasting.

Staffing and technology needs will only grow, meaning any successes in forecasting in recent years could be short-lived, NWS noted.

NWS director Louis Uccellini told the House Science, Space & Technology Committee that his organization will need more employees and computerization to keep up with its goal of making the United States a “weather-ready nation.”

“Weather-ready” means providing warnings and building systems to protect Americans against the higher rate of hurricanes, floods, heat waves, droughts and wildfires that meteorologists say are inevitable as global warming continues.

“We are living in times where the demand for what we do is going to grow,” Mr. Uccellini told the committee. “We’ve got a long way to go.”

NWS operates with around 3,300 full-time employees. The agency said it needs about 500 more high-level meteorological scientists.

It also seeks more high-tech equipment, such as supercomputers, high-resolution weather sensors and phased-array radar.

The equipment would allow experts to look deep inside dangerous weather systems to extract real-time information, which would allow them to make better and more accurate forecasts.

Nicole LeBoeuf, acting assistant administrator for the National Ocean Service, said forecasting improvements are needed, particularly along the coasts, since many Americans live near them.

“What I will say is that the magnitude of these impacts, direct and cascading, will be high (since) 40% of the U.S. population lives within 60 miles of our coastlines,” Ms. LeBoeuf said.

“There will be highly variable impacts along those coastlines. But there’s no denying that a large portion of our economy and revenue and tax base are right there front and center.

“In addition to that, I would say to our folks that live away from the coastlines that almost everything that we use, eat and wear comes through the base of our supply chain, which are our ports along our coast.”

Spring brings threat of severe storms

While DEMA monitors potential threats year-round, Mr. Sands said that springtime brings its share of severe storms to the First State.

The season arrives March 20, so Delawareans should be on the lookout for incoming severe weather.

“I want to stress that weather hazards exist year-round, and so it is important to remain weather-aware all of the time,” Mr. Sands said. “March is the top month for storms in Delaware, followed closely by August and September.

“Hurricane season begins June 1, but the 2021 season continued the trend of earlier storms. In fact, it was the seventh consecutive year with a named storm before the official start of hurricane season. There continues to be discussion of expanding hurricane season to account for these earlier storms.”

Charles Nunan is a disaster recovery specialist with Servpro of Dover/Middletown. He’s become accustomed to responding to storm damage in the spring.

“It’s not unusual to see severe weather in the spring,” he said. “Whenever you have warm, moist air colliding with cool, dry air, you have the conditions for creating a thunderstorm, along with the possibility of lightning strikes, floods, hail, high winds, rip currents and even wildfires and tornadoes.

“The problem is, you can’t prevent these severe weather events, and you can’t predict very far in advance when and where they will hit. The only sensible approach is to take steps in advance to protect your family and property, especially as these disasters become more common.”

Scientists say that if the effects of these disasters are to be reduced, then serious action needs to be taken immediately and globally.

“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet,” physiologist and marine biologist Hans-Otto Portner said, after the IPCC numbers were released Feb. 28.

“Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a livable future.”