Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is a George Washington Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Delaware State University. He has run for U.S. president 11 times and has published extensively on American elections.
The 2026 midterm election for Congress has extra significance since both chambers are in play for a change of party leadership. This piece offers some predictions of results and the ensuing events that could follow.
Back in January, I wrote here that the House of Representatives would change party control in 2026. That forecast hasn’t changed. The average House loss for the president’s party in midterm elections since the ratification of the 17th Amendment has been 30 seats if all such elections counted, though that lessens to 29 seats when counting midterm elections that transpired during second-term presidencies. The issues of concern to voters — economic costs, the Iran war (since February) and loss of healthcare for millions of Americans — have only been exacerbated.
However, we cannot ignore the plethora of aggressive measures undertaken by the Trump White House to mitigate or reverse the expected loss of GOP control there, whether prodding states to redistrict boundaries, attacking the mail ballot process, demanding detailed state voter rolls or threatening to station federal officials at polling places as monitors. The impact of these moves will reduce the Democrats’ gain to 20-22 seats.
That brings us to the U.S. Senate, currently controlled by Republicans 53-47. Democrats need four seats to take control of that chamber again.
Historical patterns since 1914 reveal an average seat loss of four Senate seats by the president’s party in all midterm elections but an average 6.5-seat loss for the president’s party in sixth-year midterms. There is a strong likelihood of Democrats turning Senate seats in Ohio and North Carolina. There are six other states where Democrats hold narrow edges over the Republicans in U.S. Senate races: In Texas, Maine, Michigan, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska, they are essentially toss-ups. While there are some of the same national concerns, starting with the economy, local issues may very well decide these contests. We have seen President Trump and his allies, as well as Democrats like former President Barack Obama, actively campaigning in these areas. That both parties are underwater with prospective voters, combined with declining trust in elections, could depress turnout, though Democrats are still several points ahead on generic ballot preference and with independents.
The prediction here is that Democrats will take at least two of the aforementioned toss-up states, along with Ohio and North Carolina, regaining control of the Senate. But, depending on which of those close states the Democrat wins, there could be a sustained delay in knowing the final outcome. For instance, if the Democratic candidate wins Alaska, the Trump Justice Department has already promised to file suit based on dual names on the ballot. And, after the January FBI raid on a Fulton County, Georgia, election facility, there is no telling how desperate the White House may get to hang on.
Another potential crisis: If Democrats end up gaining the minimum four seats necessary to take Senate control, there will be a concerted effort to convince wayward Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman to caucus with Republicans, which would put the Senate breakdown back at 50-50. That would allow the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate by way of a tiebreak by Vice President JD Vance.
The logical, traditional impact of a sixth-year midterm election resulting in a loss of the president’s party control in Congress has been a more combative chief executive who is more prone to utilize the veto power, as was amply demonstrated by President George W. Bush after 2006 and by President Barack Obama after 2014. The problem is that President Donald Trump is neither predictable nor respectful of his constitutional authority.
Meanwhile, the political calendar will go on, and wishful 2028 presidential candidates will be testing the waters. Mind the sharks.
Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcomed at civiltalk@iniusa.org.
