By Tim Mastro

WILMINGTON — The uncertainty of a year ago has been replaced by the growing, yet cautious, optimism surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the day that the Delaware Division of Public Health confirmed Delaware’s first case of the virus. What followed was a year of lockdowns, social distancing, masks and a far-from-normal 2020.

The 365-day journey has led to this point — when Delaware’s COVID-19 statistics have been improving each day, and its vaccine rollout has sped up after a rocky start.

“I feel like we’re turning the corner,” Gov. John Carney said this week. “That light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter every day.”

The DPH reported Thursday that the seven-day rolling average for percentage of positive COVID-19 tests fell to 3.9% — the first time it has been below 4% since Nov. 5. For reference, the World Health Organization recommends a seven-day rolling average of 5%. Delaware’s was above 10% the first week of January.

Hospitalizations continue to fall, as well, dropping for the 10th consecutive day to 83, the lowest since Oct. 4.

Dr. Bill Chasanov, infectious-disease physician at Beebe Healthcare, cautioned that the pandemic is not over — Delaware’s current numbers are still higher than last summer and early fall — but he added that Delawareans have become well-versed in what he called the “three Ws” — watching your distance, washing your hands and wearing a mask to help limit the spread. New treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, have also helped Delaware’s hospitalization numbers lower.

“There are many things we have learned: Masks save lives, additional public measures during spikes can slow the spread, we now have better therapies for the COVID-19 infection,” Dr. Chasanov said. “And safe and effective vaccines can help end this pandemic.”

Another key to help curb the spread, said Dr. John Fink, Bayhealth’s vice president for quality and medical affairs, is using the state’s vast array of testing options for early detection. Delaware’s testing program has recorded 1,457,662 tests among 639,575 different individuals.

A full list of COVID-19 testing options is available here.

“We all need to be personally responsible for isolating and quarantining when appropriate, and for getting tested,” Dr. Fink said. “We need to remain vigilant about any potential return of COVID cases, and the best way to do that is to keep looking for them. Testing early and often is the best way to know if there is an increase in community spread.”

Most businesses in Delaware are still operating at 50%, which was expanded from 30% last month. When Delaware’s numbers were the lowest last summer, the occupancy limit was 60%.

After a few other states have announced plans to go back to 100% capacity and do away with mask mandates, Gov. Carney said Delaware likely won’t do so in the near future. He called the decision to lift mask mandates and expand to 100% capacity in other states, such as Texas and Maryland, premature.

“I don’t think that makes a lot of sense,” Gov. Carney said. “It’s certainly an ill-formed decision and might reverse some of the gains that have been made. It’s certainly not consistent with guidance from public health experts, the (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and the (National Institutes of Health).”

Dr. Karyl Rattay, DPH’s director, credited Delawareans for following the state’s guidance when it experienced a post-holiday surge in early January. The state warned against private, indoor gatherings among different households and asked for such gatherings to not exceed 10 people.

She said the contact tracing and case investigations done so far in 2021 have shown less community spread at such events.

“We saw a lot less gatherings, a lot less parties and a lot less people together in close settings in January,” Dr. Rattay said. “It is likely, as more and more people get vaccinated, that we can see less spread of infection.”

Whether vaccinations have begun to have an effect on the decrease of Delaware’s percent-positive rate is more unsure, she added.

“It may be starting to have an impact on the rates, but all across the nation began to see decreases in the late-January, early-February time frame,” she said. “We know there is some just natural progression of the infection that these cycles go through a peak and often come down from the peak, so it’s hard to say how much you can attribute to vaccine at this point.”

Rates peaked here, as they did in the rest of the country, during the first two weeks of January, with hospitalizations at 474 on Jan. 12, a seven-day rolling average for percentage of positive tests at 10.4% on Jan. 5 and a record high for average new cases per day, 831.6, on Jan. 5.

Delaware began ramping up its vaccine rollout the following week, with large-scale events at Division of Motor Vehicles sites. Some did not go very smoothly, as individuals reported waits of more than five hours and registration troubles. The kinks have since been ironed out, as the state now has a large-scale site at Dover International Speedway through a partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and several smaller sites at Delaware Technical Community College campuses through Curative Inc., plus additional community-based events to reach underserved residents.

Supply of vaccine was also a challenge, leading the state to focus on just second doses during the middle of February, but that has improved, as Delaware now has received 329,290 doses of vaccine directly, as well as an additional 63,925 doses via the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program. The DPH is reporting 303,568 doses administered as of Thursday at 11:59 p.m., with 89,647 remaining.

On Tuesday, the DPH said it will begin vaccinating other essential workers in its current Phase 1B distribution group. Phase 1B began with a focus on seniors and educators, but now, vaccinations are ongoing for first responders, correctional officers and poultry workers. In the coming weeks, vaccination events will be held for front-line workers in food manufacturing, agriculture, grocery stores, public transit, postal service, higher education and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

As the number of vaccinations increase, Dr. Fink said it’s crucial to not forget about the lessons learned from the past year to prevent another surge.

“It’s important not to worry about what we cannot control for now,” he said. “Our focus must remain on distributing vaccines, wearing face masks and socially distancing. If we stay focused on doing the right things, the fear of another surge is lessened. It’s also important to note that staying home when sick and getting tested when appropriate will be just as important to preventing another surge as vaccines will be.”