Delaware panel warns of troubling revenue trends

By Randall Chase, Associated Press
Posted 6/17/23

DOVER — Delaware’s official government revenue forecast has changed little from last month’s projections, but a state panel warned Friday of potentially troubling trends for the …

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Delaware panel warns of troubling revenue trends

Posted

DOVER — Delaware’s official government revenue forecast has changed little from last month’s projections, but a state panel warned Friday of potentially troubling trends for the year ahead.

The Delaware Economic and Financial Advisory Council, which sets the state’s official revenue estimates, boosted its revenue forecast for this fiscal year by $58 million compared to its May projections. The increase is largely attributable to slight gains in estimates for personal and corporate income tax, and unclaimed property revenue.

The forecast for the fiscal year starting July 1 was basically unchanged from last month. Taking into account other revisions, state lawmakers have $84 million more to work with than they did last month as they put the final touches on budget bills for the upcoming fiscal year.

Officials warned, however, that revenue trends could spell trouble ahead.

“Some of the key revenue sources, … an awful lot of revenue sources, are not looking good for the next two fiscal years,” said David Roose, director of research and tax policy for the state Department of Finance.

Roose noted that estimates for fiscal 2024 fell in virtually every revenue category compared to last month. Current projections show total general fund revenue declining by 3.8% next year, compared to revenue growth of 7.7% this year.

Personal income for Delawareans is expected to grow about 3% next year, compared to more than 5% this year. Wages and salaries also are forecast to increase by about 3%, down sharply from 8% growth this year. Job growth is expected to decline by half.

Forecasters are expecting net personal income tax, the largest general fund revenue source, to decline slightly next year, while corporate franchise taxes, the second-largest revenue source, is projected to decline by about 7%. Net corporate income tax, another significant revenue stream, is expected to drop by 27%.

DEFAC chairman Michael Houghton wondered whether lawmakers are being kept up to date about the implications of the sagging revenue projections as they consider spending initiatives.

“We’ve had conversations over the last few months with leadership to alert them to some of this softening that we’ve been seeing,” replied state budget director Cerron Cade.

He said the discussions have included pressures from increased spending as well. Medicaid expenditures, for example, are expected to top $1 billion for the first time next year.

“A lot of members are starting to bring legislation forward, recognizing that some of the things they want to do are not going to get done this year,” Cade said.

Nevertheless, members of the legislature’s budget-writing committee have added more than $120 million to Gov. John Carney’s proposed operating budget for the fiscal year starting July 1. The revised budget plan, which will be the subject of House and Senate votes in the coming days, is roughly 10% higher than the budget for the current year. This year, meanwhile, spending has increased by $781 million, or more than 15%, compared to last year.

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