College football picks: Georgia-Alabama showdown not as consequential with 12-team CFP but still big
The biggest games of the college football regular season are not quite as important as they used to be.
No. 2 Georgia visits No. 4 Alabama on Saturday in a showdown of two Southeastern Conference superpowers who have combined to win five national titles since the College Football Playoff's implementation in 2014. The Crimson Tide has won six on its own since 2009.
The winner will give its CFP credentials a huge early-season boost while the loser — will probably be OK, too. Welcome to the 12-team playoff era, where the regular season just means less.
Of course, this has been the evolution of college football for years.
Back in the days before the Bowl Championship Series and CFP, a game like Alabama-Georgia could have essentially been national title elimination game — or pretty close to it.
The BCS was the beginning of the end for those type of do-or-die regular-season matchups, and conference championship games increased the likelihood of rematches, too.
Under the four-team CFP, both the loser and winner of some huge matchups still made the field, including an Alabama-Georgia SEC title game rematch for the 2021 national championship that went to the Bulldogs after the Tide won the first game.
Still, those were more exceptions than the norm.
Now that the playoff includes 12 teams the consequences for losing regular-season games are not as great. That's a bummer for some fans, but it doesn't mean the games can't still be great — and that Alabama-Georgia isn't the most intriguing game of the week.
The Bulldogs are 45-2 since 2021 with two national championships. Both losses, including their SEC title game last year when they were trying for a historic national title three-peat, have been to Alabama.
Of course, that was Nick Saban's Alabama. This is Kalen DeBoer's. The Tide is still looking pretty good without their legendary coach, we'll see if something changes when former Saban assistant Kirby Smart is not facing his old boss.
Pick: Alabama 27-23.
The last time these two teams played they managed to combine for 18 points over the course of nine overtime periods as the Illini knocked off the Nittany Lions 20-18 in Happy Valley. It was not college football's finest moment — at least for offense.
The Illini try to make it two straight Big Ten road wins against ranked opponents after beating Nebraska in OT last week.
Pick: Penn State 31-17.
An interesting game that could have playoff ramifications, though they need to be clarified.
Boise State could make the field as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions by winning the Mountain West. The Cougars are playing six Mountain West opponents this season, but they are still in the Pac-12, which has only two members — for now — and is not eligible to have its champion be among the highest ranked champ.
The Cougars (4-0) would have to make the field as an at-large. Any chance of that probably starts with being unbeaten.
Pick: Boise State 35-31.
The Cardinals ran the Fighting Irish out of Louisville last season and now have a chance to pretty much crush their CFP hopes before the calendar flips to October.
Pick: Notre Dame 27-23.
Recent vintage Miami has had a strong tendency to find a way to disappoint when things are looking up. Cam Ward's Hurricanes are trying to buck that trend.
Pick: Miami 38-17.
The rest of Saturday's games involving ranked teams with odds from BetMGM.
QB Arch Manning likely to make his first SEC start ... TEXAS 55-14.
Buckeyes have won eight straight against the Spartans, all by at least 20 points ... OHIO STATE 42-14.
Rebels start SEC play after outscoring nonconference opposition by an average of 55-5 ... OLE MISS 31-17.
Ducks first Big Ten game is a road trip to UCLA? OK ... OREGON 45-21.
Utes are back to playing the will-he-or-won't-he-play game with QB Cam Rising (hand) ... UTAH 31-17.
Wolverines won with 32 yards passing last week and the Gophers lost allowing 62 yards passing. B1G! ... MICHIGAN 20-9.
First regular-season meeting since 1966 ... USC 34-21.
Get to know Jaguars RB Fluff Bothwell, who is averaging 9.7 yards per carry with six touchdowns ... LSU 49-24.
Second of back-to-back cross-country ACC trips for Cardinal comes ... CLEMSON 48-17.
First meeting for relatively new-ish Big 12 ... IOWA STATE 27-12.
With both coming off conference losses, a huge early game between Big 12 contenders ... KANSAS STATE 24-21.
Auburn football is by nature volatile so nothing would be more Auburn than bouncing back strong after an loss that had coach Hugh Freeze complaining about his quarterbacks ... AUBURN 23-20.
Strange spread game: Unbeaten Cougars are an underdog to a 2-2 team coming off a brutal loss to Colorado ... BYU 20-17.
Aggies have won 11 of 12 meetings in a series that tends to produce weird results. ... TEXAS A&M 27-25.
Colorado at UCF (minus 14), Saturday. Buffs' defense has been improved, but UCF is humming at 375 yards per game rushing. UCF 45-28. @taino211
Washington (plus 2 1/2) at Rutgers, Friday. Scarlet Knights are trying to start 4-0 for the first time since 2012 ... WASHINGTON 20-17. @jcsteer
New Mexico at New Mexico State (plus 9 1/2). Aggies have won two straight in the Rio Grande Rivalry ... NEW MEXICO STATE 33-30. @SoLetsSay
Liberty (minus 3 1/2) at Appalachian State. This was supposed to be the toughest game on Liberty's schedule ... LIBERTY 35-28. @cfp4_us
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RECORD
Last week: Straight-up — 17-6; Against spread — 13-10.
Season: Straight-up — 70-17; Against spread — 47-40.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP
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