By Rachel Sawicki

Based on new rules released for the National Flood Insurance Program, Delawareans will see a change in the cost to protect their homes against flood damage.

Phase One of the program’s new risk rating methodology, managed and updated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, began Friday. Risk Rating 2.0 incorporates more flood risk variables, including flood frequency and type like river overflow and heavy rainfall as well as distance to a water source and property characteristics such as elevation and the cost to rebuild.

“The NFIP’s new rating methodology is long overdue since it hasn’t been updated in more than 40 years,” said David Maurstad, senior executive of the National Flood Insurance Program. “Now is the right time to modernize how risk is identified, priced and communicated. By doing so we empower policyholders to make informed decisions to protect their homes and businesses from life-changing flooding events that will strike in the months and years ahead due to climate change.”

Most Delawareans will benefit from the new policy. FEMA reports that 98 percent of current policyholders’ premiums will either decrease or increase by $20 or less per month under Risk Rating 2.0.

FEMA is restricted to increasing flood insurance rates for primary residences by no more than 18 percent per year. There are currently 26,100 NFIP policies in force in Delaware and 363,000 properties not covered by NFIP policy.

Danielle Swallow, a coastal hazard specialist for Delaware Sea Grant, does extension work with communities to help them understand how weather and climate change will impact their communities, and how to adapt.

“The hazard itself is increasing because of climate change,” she said. “You have a water table that’s increasing because of sea level rise and that has many implications for flooding, and can worsen flooding. We’ve seen that storms are intensifying and bringing more rain in shorter amounts of time.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent high-tide flooding report says coastal communities across the U.S. continued to see record-setting high-tide flooding in 2020. The report shows that between May 2020 and April 2021, coastal communities saw twice as many high tide flooding days than they did 20 years ago. The trend of near record high tides is expected to continue through the spring of 2022.

According to First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group working to define America’s growing flood dangers, more than 15.8 percent of individual properties and properties in Delaware are at any risk of flooding over the next 30 years. Of those at risk, 67 percent are at major to extreme risk.

A total of 39,700 Delaware properties currently have a substantial risk of flooding, but over the next 30 years the number of risk properties will increase by another 21 percent, bringing the total number of properties with substantial risk to 48,000.

A 2021 report from FSF examining the risk of economic loss from flooding in the United States, Delaware had the highest value at $21,361 per property. The second highest was South Carolina at $11,634.

“At a state level, Delaware has the biggest [Average Annual Loss to National Flood Insurance Program] premium disparity with 11.4 times more annualized economic risk in the state than the current NFIP pricing structure is designed to insure,” the report says.

Twelve percent of properties in Sussex and 1 percent in Kent and New Castle are currently at risk of flood damage. By 2050, the cost of flood damage is expected to increase by 50.9 percent in Sussex, 119.7 percent in Kent and 49.6 percent in New Castle County. On average, the annual cost to property owners of homes prone to flood damage will rise by $12,825 in Sussex, $2,869 in Kent, and $1,815 in New Castle.

Delaware’s beaches are at the greatest risk of flood damage, reflected in Sussex County’s significantly higher flood risk, but the risk for flood damage on properties in New Castle County are increasing as well. Risk in New Castle and Pike Creek is expected to jump 13 percent and by 18 percent in Wilmington by 2050.

Trinidad Navarro, Delaware insurance commissioner, said he remembers the storms that ravaged New Castle County in 2003 and 2004. Tropical Storm Henri in September 2003 wiped out the Glenville community, spurring the largest housing purchase by state and county governments in Delaware’s history due to storm damage. A total of 171 homes were purchased just eight months after the storm struck.

The first tornado New Castle County had seen in 15 years ripped trees from the ground and severely damaged residential and business structures during Tropical Depression Jeanne in 2004. This initiated another large housing purchase: a buyout of the Newkirk Estates and Glendale communities. In total, $34 million was spent in two years to rectify storm damage.

“These 100- and 500-year storms are occurring every couple of years now and for those individuals who live in areas that are flood prone, they will see an increase in premiums,” Mr. Navarro said.

The Department of Insurance does not manage the NFIP, but regulates private policies offered by insurers. Mr. Navarro noted, however, that the insurance department is a resource for consumers for all lines of insurance, private or federal. The department is working to expand the availability of private options.

In any case, however, he said people will pay more when the likelihood of another flood is high.

“Everyone loves that beautiful view of a body of water, but I think people should think twice about purchasing properties because we know, history tells us… that the climate is changing,” Mr. Navarro said.

He added that many people assume their homeowners insurance will cover a flood, a sewage backup or damage caused by rain, but in most policies it is excluded.

Dr. Gina Tonn, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control floodplain program manager and engineer, said she is seeing an increase in flood risk and that it is likely more areas will be re-mapped into high risk flood zones.

“There is not a big change that’s happening with Risk Rating 2.0 where suddenly all the maps are updated,” Dr. Tonn said. “The maps are really meant to show current conditions and what’s in 1 percent risk zone. That’s what makes sense from an insurance perspective, you’re paying for insurance for this year, not something out in the future. So in general, the maps will change potentially to show more area in the floodplain as time goes on.”

DNREC reassesses flood maps as needed in areas where issues start to become more frequent or areas that are simply outdated. The last countywide reassessments were done in Kent and Sussex in 2018 and in New Castle County in 2020.

“Our Delaware communities and counties still use (the flood maps) to regulate development in the floodplain,” Dr. Tonn said. “They are required to do that as part of their participation in the National Flood Insurance Program, and that will continue under Risk Rating 2.0.”

Some areas in Wilmington that were flooded during Hurricane Ida in early September are AE flood zones, meaning they present a 1 percent annual chance of flooding and a 26 percent chance over the life of a 30-year mortgage, according to FEMA.

Homeowners in AE flood zones with mortgages from federally regulated lenders are required to purchase flood insurance through the NFIP.

Areas outside of mapped flood zones are still at risk too. Sea Grant Delaware says that more than 20 percent of flood insurance claims come from people outside of mapped high-risk areas.

Ms. Swallow said that although there is no control over when flood events occur, the exposure to flooding is manageable. “We need to design for future conditions and not just what we see on the ground or historical conditions,” she said. “Think about what is being allowed to be built in a floodplain, and is it being designed with high standards in mind so that it can accommodate some flooding and bounce back.”

New policies beginning Oct. 1 will be subject to the new ratings. Also beginning Oct. 1, existing policyholders eligible for renewal will be able to take advantage of immediate decreases in their premiums.

An earlier version of this article misspelled Danielle Swallow's name.