No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame on Saturday will be the season's third matchup of teams in the top five of The Associated Press Top 25. If it's like the first two, it will be close.
Texas-Ohio State and Ohio State-Indiana were decided by a total of five points, and seven of the last nine regular-season top-five matchups have been one-score games.
The average margin of victory in top-five regular-season games since 2000 is 11.9 points, according to Sportradar, with 25 of the 54 decided by eight points or less and the biggest rout being 44 points (No. 5 Oklahoma 65-21 over No. 2 Texas Tech).
Miami has won all four of its top-five regular-season matchups since 2000 and Notre Dame has lost two of three. The Fighting Irish need this one badly to make the College Football Playoff.
The picks for FBS vs. FBS games, with AP rankings and betting lines. All games are on Saturday unless noted:
Darian Mensah, Malachi Toney and the Hurricanes meet their match in Notre Dame's top-ranked defense. CJ Carr goes against a Miami secondary that's given up over 300 yards passing in three straight games.
Pick: Notre Dame 28-24.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has been sharp in two previous meetings with the Bulldogs, passing for 635 yards and having a hand in five touchdowns. Georgia star CB Ellis Robinson got dinged up last week against Florida.
Pick: Mississippi 24-23.
Utah has turned over the ball twice in each of its last four games and the Utes coughed it up a total of five times in their last two meetings with BYU, losses decided by a total of four points. Utes win if they take care of ball.
Pick: Utah 26-20.
A UCLA win makes Bruins 9-0 for first time since 1998. If Gophers had some oomph on offense, it would be tempting to pick them at home.
Pick: UCLA 17-14.
QB George MacIntyre has the backing of his teammates, but Volunteers coach Josh Heupel hasn't committed to him starting a fourth straight game. Vols are 5-0 against Kentucky under Heupel.
Pick: Tennessee 27-23.
LSU can force the CFP selection committee to re-think what many see as an inflated No. 5 initial CFP ranking for the Crimson Tide.
Pick: LSU 30-24.
Tigers' Austin Simmons has put up better numbers than Arch Manning and is 4-0 at home, and SEC rushing leader Jamal Roberts just went over 1,000 yards.
Pick: Missouri 26-24.
This was circled on calendar when Ohio State and Oregon were 1-2 to start season. It's still a huge game because of the huge playoff (elimination) implications for the two-loss Buckeyes and three-loss Ducks.
Pick: Ohio State 31-20.
Mountaineers can score lots of points; their defense tends to give up more. Tech's Thomas Castellanos is the type of mobile QB who causes all kinds of problems for a team like West Virginia.
Pick: Texas Tech 45-35.
Cougars used bye week to get key players healthy for a stretch run that will require them to win out and get lots of help to reach Big 12 title game.
Pick: Houston 33-27.
Broncos have lots to play for as the leading Group of Six team for the CFP. QB Maddux Madsen is day-to-day. Max Cutforth showed against Texas State last week he's more than capable if called on.
Pick: Boise State 48-24.
Hawkeyes had success mixing short passing game with the run in first game without leading rusher Kamari Moulton and will test a Northwestern defense designed to prevent the deep ball.
Pick: Iowa 24-23.
Lobos will be playing as ranked team for first time in program history on Friday. They've held three of last four opponents under 200 yards, and Nevada's struggling offense has had three starting QBs because of injuries.
Pick: New Mexico 21-17.
Gamecocks have won three straight since QB LaNorris Sellers stepped up his game. Aggies in danger of falling below .500 for first time since 2022 under Jimbo Fisher.
Pick: South Carolina 33-21.
Noah Fifita will be in bounce-back mode Friday night after fading in the fourth quarter against Texas Tech.
Pick: Arizona 27-22.
Jason Whitten takes over as Sooners' play-caller and it's not known whether John Mateer will remain starting QB. Gators high on their defense after strong second half against Georgia.
Pick: Florida 29-21.
Byes: No. 6 Indiana, No. 18 USC.
Last week: Straight-up — 13-5; Against spread — 10-8.
Season: Straight-up — 113-44; Against spread — 78-77-2.
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