WASHINGTON (AP) — The midterm elections might look ominous for President Donald Trump, but there are places where his Republican Party could turn the tables on Democrats if it can peel off a few key wins in key congressional races.
National organizations are pumping money behind candidates that Republicans hope can provide bright spots. Here's a look at places where that cash bump — and prime issues like redistricting, immigration and top-of-the-ticket races — might help the party hold their own on Election Night on Nov. 3.
It still won't be enough, counters Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Aidan Johnson, who says his party remains “firmly on offense and on track to take back” the House majority.
The race in the state's first district has no incumbent as Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas runs for Senate against John E. Sununu, a former Republican congressman who served a single term as senator from 2003 to 2009.
Stefany Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, won a hotly contested Democratic primary. She's facing Anthony DiLorenzo, who was endorsed by Trump and owns several car dealerships.
The seat used to frequently flip between parties, but has remained blue since Pappas first got to Congress in 2019, and the district narrowly supported Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.
Shaheen has focused on the rising cost of health care and opposing Trump's tariffs and trade wars, which she says have hurt New Hampshire consumers.
DiLorenzo has taken a more moderate stance on immigration than Trump, calling for pro-business reforms to the federal system. But he's also echoed the president's saying that Democrats want to push the U.S. toward outright socialism.
Last year, Republican Jay Ruais, the mayor of the district's largest city of Manchester, was reelected with around 59% of the vote.
Republicans are also looking for a boost from the Senate race. No Going Back Pac has pledged $10 million to back Sununu. The group is associated with MAGA Inc., Trump's behemoth campaign war chest that had more than $400 million in the bank at the end of July.
First-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is facing Republican Jeanine Driscoll, a tax receiver in Hempstead in New York's fourth district, which includes Nassau County and runs east of Manhattan, hugging Long Island's south shore.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is considered an underdog against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a statewide race in reliably blue New York. But Blakeman is the Nassau County executive, meaning he may see strong turnout on his home turf and potentially affect Driscoll's chances against Gillen.
In 2024, Trump nearly carried the district after losing it by well over 10 points in 2020.
While Gillen has stressed sometimes working with Republicans to address key issues like the rising cost of living, Driscoll has championed Trump's immigration policies while promising to better shield suburban Long Island from regional and statewide policies she criticizes as government overreach.
Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman 's first district on the westside of Cincinnati backed Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 but was redrawn to make it more Republican-leaning ahead of November.
The new boundaries encompass Clinton County and rural western Hamilton County, while reducing the more Democratic-friendly Cincinnati suburbs. It's one of several places with new maps after Trump urged an unusual round of redistricting around the country to help his party keep control of the House.
Landsman, who was first elected to Congress in 2022, is squaring off against Republican former Air Force veteran and CIA officer Eric Conroy.
Like Trump, Conroy spent months suggesting that the war in Iran would reach a swift conclusion. The president now says that won't happen until at least after the midterms.
Landsman has focused on pocketbook issues, including rising utility rates. He's also raised more money than his challenger in recent quarters, which could be an indicator of where the race is headed.
Looking to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada's third district is Marty O'Donnell, the composer behind music featured in the wildly popular Halo video game series and the 1990s jingle for Flintstones vitamins: “We are Flintstones kids, 10 million strong and growing.”
O'Donnell even led the crowd in singing a rendition during the midterm convention that Trump led in Dallas.
Lee first won her seat during a Democratic wave in 2018 and survived in 2024 even though her district backed Trump. Nevada relies heavily on the tourism and hospitality industries, and Republicans are touting Trump's legislation to cut taxes on tips and overtime.
Lee and other key Democrats counter that Trump hasn't kept campaign promises to lower costs — especially as the war with Iran has driven up gasoline and diesel prices and renewed fears about high inflation.
There could also be trickle-down effects from Nevada's governor's race. Republican incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo is a former sheriff of Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. He's in what's likely to be a close race with Nevada's attorney general, Democrat Aaron Ford, who previously represented a Las Vegas-area district in the state senate.
Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez narrowly won his seat in 2022. And he narrowly won reelection in 2024 even as Trump carried the district, which stretches from southern and western Albuquerque to encompass the state's entire southern half — including around 180 miles (290 kilometers) of U.S.-Mexico border.
Vasquez has built a political identity around being the son of Mexican immigrants and the first in his family to be born in the U.S. His Republican opponent, Greg Cunningham, is a Marine veteran and onetime undercover police officer, spoke at Trump's midterm convention and has focused on calls for stricter border security and law and order.
Hispanic voters shifted toward Trump in 2024, though a majority still backed Harris. According to AP VoteCast, 43% of Hispanic voters nationally supported Trump, up from 35% in 2020. Vasquez's race with Cunningham may test Trump's continued appeal with Hispanics and whether some voters have become disillusioned with the president’s tougher immigration policies in addition to his handling of the economy.
