OPINION

Hoff: Ways to predict 2024 presidential election

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Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is a George Washington Distinguished Professor Emeritus of history and political science at Delaware State University and a 10-time independent candidate for U.S. president.

While political scientists are in the business of forecasting patterns in political phenomena for a living, the myriad methods out there for predicting the outcome of presidential elections show that everyone can try, and has. This article reviews some serious and some silly ways to anticipate the winning party and candidate in the quadrennial race.

The precursor

Before former President Donald Trump’s attempt to win a staggered second term in office, history was made in 1892, when former President Grover Cleveland won back the White House from the incumbent who took it away from him in 1888 — Benjamin Harrison. There are many more differences than similarities between Trump and Cleveland.

Cleveland was a Democrat. As opposed to the frenzy of the 2024 campaign, there was no active campaigning by either major-party candidate in 1892. Unlike 2024, a third party, the Populists, had a major impact on the 1892 election, siphoning at least 1 million votes from Republicans. When Grover Cleveland ran for his second term, he was 55 years old, more than 20 years younger than Trump. As opposed to the mediocre performance Trump’s party had in the 2022 midterm elections, Cleveland’s Democrats cleaned up in 1890, and that momentum and Cleveland’s 1892 win helped Democrats take back control of Congress. Finally, Cleveland’s signature issues — sound money, opposing tariffs and supporting immigration — run counter to Trump’s positions, or at least the latter two do. These distinctions do not presage a repeat of Grover Cleveland’s feat.

Computer simulations of race

The group FiveThirtyEight has been running weekly simulations of outcomes based on the latest polling data. Having recently run the scenario 100 times, former President Trump comes out on top in 54 instances, with a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

National polls

An New York Times/Siena College poll, released Friday, found that the contenders tied at 48% each, a similar finding to The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. However, two-thirds of respondents in recent surveys believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, which favors a Trump win in 2024.

Professor models

American University historian Allan Lichman has accurately predicted the results of nine of the last 10 presidential elections. He uses a 13-key method, which, when applied to the 2024 race, predicts Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner.

This writer has a model that can only be used in reelection races; it has an 80% success rate from 1792 until now. It uses seven variables, including first-term electoral vote percent, how many years the president’s party controls Congress during a first term, whether the president running for reelection ended a war, the number of first-term Supreme Court appointments, changes in certain cabinet personnel, veto overrides and whether the incumbent running for reelection previously served as vice president. Though President Joe Biden wins reelection based on this model, the replacement of the Democratic nominee renders this result questionable.

S&P 500 index and other economic models

If the S&P 500 is up between August and November before the election, the incumbent party is likely to keep the White House. One finding has the measure up 12% since early August, portending a Harris victory.

A more sophisticated model uses economic conditions, presidential popularity, party strength and candidate appeal to predict the electoral vote winner in presidential elections.

Demographic and physical factors

Several outlets have measured the stark difference in support of the 2024 presidential candidates based on gender. A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that males support former President Trump, and women favor Vice President Harris by the same wide margin, 15 points apiece. Based on gender split in population, this factor is even.

According to Newsweek magazine, the presidential candidate who is taller has been the victor in 18 of the last 24 elections. Former President Donald Trump, who is almost a foot taller than Vice President Kamala Harris, wins, according to this factor.

Kids know best

Scholastic magazine has a record of predicting the winner of presidential elections since 1940. Who is surveyed? Kindergarten-12th grade students nationally. Result pending. Another favorite predictor is which contender’s Halloween mask is purchased more; this has accurately mirrored the winner since 1996. Again, the result is still out on that.

Munch out, vote in

According to several sources, a bakery in Cincinnati that sells cookies with images of candidates has been correct on presidential election predictions since 1984, with the exception of 2000. The Busken Bakery reports a runaway Trump win based on latest sales.

Sports as predictors

There are two well-known sports predictors of presidential elections. First, a fairly reliable pattern shows that whichever league wins the Major League Baseball World Series, a certain political party’s candidate will win. Specifically, this measure forecasts a Republican victory with an American League win in the World Series and a Democratic victory with a National League triumph. The National League Los Angeles Dodgers are leading the American League New York Yankees in the series as this is written.

Or one might go with the Washington Commanders’ enviable record of predicting presidential winners, which finds that, if that team wins its last home game before the presidential election, the incumbent will stay in power. The Commanders won their last home game Sunday and are on the road just before the election, so this method indicates a Harris victory.

Look to the stars

Finally, recognizing that links between politics and astrology date back to Roman times, why not utilize the heavens to predict the presidential election winner? Employing the birth charts of both Harris and Trump, astrologers report that, since both overlap Gemini and since Jupiter is presently in Gemini, the results are inconclusive. Alternatively, we could base our prediction on earthly stars: The ending to the motion picture that last won the Best Picture Oscar before the presidential election has been tapped to predict the winner, based on whether the ending is a happy one (incumbent party returns to power) or a sad one (change of party control in the White House). While inspirational, the movie “Oppenheimer” was decidedly dark and negative in portraying the early atomic era, so Trump wins based on this factor.

Adding up all the professional and playful techniques above for predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election, we discover what we already knew: This will be a close race. Geographically, it all comes down to Pennsylvania, which is why it is no coincidence that both candidates and their surrogates are blanketing the state. Do long-term trends there hint at the winner? Since 1912, each major party’s candidate has won 14 presidential elections in the Keystone State. Another draw.

Time to go to the last, best source and option to decide the 2024 presidential election winner: heads or tails?

Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcomed at civiltalk@iniusa.org.

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