Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is a George Washington Distinguished Professor Emeritus and an internship director at Delaware State University.
The 2026 midterm election will determine the direction of the Donald Trump presidency moving forward. While U.S. Senate control after that time is difficult to project a year out, predicting the outcome in the House of Representatives is not: The Democrats will take control of the chamber.
The first ammunition for the 2026 election prediction in the House comes from the last four decades of midterm elections, encompassing 10 cases. Since 1986, the average party seat loss in the House for the president’s party in the midterms has been 21.3 seats. This counts the rare back-to-back instances of seat gains in 1998 and 2002. In all, party control of the House has switched in five of the 10 midterm elections over the past 40 years, including 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022.
A second area to look at in predicting the outcome of the midterm election in the House is popularity or support for parties and institutions. A Quinnipiac University survey administered after last fall’s government shutdown showed a pathetic 15% backing for Congress. While a more recent national poll by Gallup found 35% support for Congress, that is also the percentage of support reported for Republicans, who control the chamber.
Third, the momentum for defeat of GOP control of the House will be enhanced by the fact that, of the 33 Senate seats up in 2026, 20 are held by Republicans. Without stating a final outcome in the Senate, that is still a disadvantage to the GOP, no matter how folks try to separate district and state races.
Then, there is a fourth factor to consider in the 2026 House election: President Trump. Certainly, the chief executive’s own support can and will have an impact on the outcome. Donald Trump continues an amazing feat in his second term, which also pervaded his initial term as president: governing with a consistently under 50% popularity score. In modern times, that means 20 more seats lost by the president’s party in midterm elections than if the president achieves majority backing, for an average of 30 seats lost. Republicans lost 42 seats in the lower chamber of Congress in 2018.
Fifth, there is the coin-toss option, which assumes an equal chance of the GOP retaining control of the House versus a Democratic overturn. Currently, Republicans are holding a very narrow majority there, which, due to deaths, early retirements and special elections, has been reduced to just five now.
Whether the 2026 midterm election results in split or Democratic control of Congress for President Trump, the consequences of change will be colossal for the country.
Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcomed at civiltalk@iniusa.org.
