Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is a George Washington Distinguished Professor Emeritus of history and political science at Delaware State University. He is a 10-time candidate for U.S. president and served in three congressional staff positions between 1978-86.
A plethora of factors will influence the outcome of the 2022 midterm election for the U.S. Congress. This article discusses and weighs each variable. When all are considered, the probable results show split-party control of Congress in 2023.
Long-term trends
Since the total number of members of Congress was set at 435 in 1929, there have been 23 midterm elections. The average seat loss for the party of the president in those races is 32 seats, including 29 in the House and three in the Senate. While the president’s party actually gained seats in seven midterm elections for the Senate, the opposition party gained seats in 20 of 23 House elections. Overall, the president’s party only gained seats in three midterm elections over the last 92 years, including 1934, 1998 and 2002. Advantage: Republicans.
Recent midterm elections
In the current century, there have been five midterm elections. In the last four such elections, not only has the president’s party lost an average of 35 seats, but there has been a party overturn of one chamber of Congress in four consecutive elections. Although the president’s party has lost an average of 3.4 seats in the Senate in the five midterm elections this century, said party actually gained seats in two of those midterm elections, 2002 and 2018. Advantage: Republicans in the House, even in the Senate.
President Biden’s popularity
Midterm elections are considered a barometer of the incumbent president’s performance and are closely correlated with the president’s popularity at the near-halfway point of his term. Though he has improved in surveys of late, President Joe Biden’s popularity is upside-down, with his approval in the low 40s. Advantage: Republicans.
Generic ballot preference
This factor has been volatile since the beginning of the year, swaying back and forth between parties. But the latest findings show that more probable voters favor Republicans over Democrats in the 2022 midterm election for Congress. Advantage: Republicans.
State of the economy
Of all issues which voters express concern about in advance of a midterm election for Congress, the health of the nation’s economy is routinely at the top. Even with a low unemployment rate and recent news that the gross domestic product reversed a two-quarter decline, inflation remains a serious problem facing the nation, as expressed in rising prices for staples like food and gas. Advantage: Republicans.
Other key issues in 2022
Each midterm election has unique issues which impact the results. The top issue of concern in advance of the 2022 election is threats to democracy. This topic was certainly strengthened by the findings of the House of Representatives’ Jan. 6 committee, as well as by the controversies dogging former President Donald Trump. Add the Supreme Court’s June overturn of the Roe v. Wade precedent on abortion and the effects are clear. Advantage: Democrats.
Enthusiasm and excitement
While seemingly the same, these features are measured differently by pollsters. The Republicans currently have a greater degree of enthusiasm for the upcoming election, but excitement is presently tied at a high level for both parties. Because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, a high turnout will negate the enthusiasm imbalance.
The turnout in the 2018 midterm election exceeded 50%, and the turnout in the ensuing presidential election in 2020 was the highest in 60 years. There is every indication that the 2022 election turnout will continue this upward trend. Advantage: even.
Retirements/not running again
This factor must be separately assessed for each chamber. In the House, a total of 49 members have announced that they won’t seek reelection, including 31 Democrats and 18 Republicans. If both parties win half of those open-seat races, the Republicans will win 24 seats in the House, taking control of the chamber and enjoying a 14-seat majority in 2023. However, the landscape is different in the Senate, where six incumbents announced their retirement, of which five are Republicans.
In two of the Republican-held seats, in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democrats are in close races with the Republican candidates. Assuming Democrats at least win one of those open-seat contests and retain two of three seats in close races with an incumbent Democrat (Georgia, Arizona and Nevada), the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. Advantage: Republicans in House, Democrats in Senate.
In terms of pure numbers, the 2022 midterm election looks most like the 1982 midterm election during President Ronald Reagan’s first term, when the Republicans lost 26 seats in the House but none in the Senate. Of course, the difference is that the Democrats already had the majority in the House then, so there was no party change in control in that chamber. Meanwhile, the president’s party retained control of the Senate after the 1982 midterm.
Clearly, split-party control of Congress will have an adverse impact on President Biden’s ability to govern, even though a majority of Americans have indicated more support for the Democrats’ agenda than for Republican priorities. Whether President Biden chooses antagonism, accommodation or a combination of both toward the Republicans is yet to be seen, but one thing is certain: Selecting the first route above will bring a boatload of vetoes.
