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Commentary: Insights into Supreme Court nominations

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Barely 30 years ago, liberal jurist Ruth Bader Ginsburg was confirmed to the Supreme Court by a Senate vote of 96-3. It’s impossible to imagine President Joe Biden’s nominee for the current Court opening getting a similar vote share today.

But why? This No Labels View delves into how and why our Supreme Court nominations have been consumed by the partisan tribalism that consumes almost everything else in our politics.

Senators once believed their constitutional “advise and consent” for Supreme Court nominations meant ensuring that a nominee was professionally qualified and free of any serious ethical concerns. Senators did not expect a nominee to agree with their personal politics, and presidents were given broad latitude to nominate justices who agreed with their judicial philosophy.

But as Congress has become more dysfunctional — and less able to pass legislation to solve our problems and settle tough debates — the court system has become the arbiter of last resort. For partisans on both sides, a Supreme Court nomination is now the ultimate battle for every issue they care about and everything they believe in.

Supreme Court justices are also serving longer than ever before, with Supreme Court justices confirmed today likely to still be on the bench well into the middle of the 21st century.

Here are five key insights showing just how partisan Supreme Court nominations have become and what it is doing to the public’s faith in our judiciary.

INSIGHT: Until the George W. Bush administration, nominees for the Supreme Court were usually approved by wide bipartisan margins, with senators of both parties putting the nominee’s qualifications ahead of ideological considerations.

Stevens (1975)

98-0

O’Connor (1981)

99-0

Rehnquist (chief justice 1986)

65-33

Scalia (1986)

98-0

Bork (1987)

42-58

Kennedy (1987)

97-0

Souter (1990)

90-9

Thomas (1991)

52-48

Ginsburg (1993)

96-3

Breyer (1994)

87-9

Roberts (chief justice 2005)

78-22

Alito (2005)

58-42

Sotomayor (2009)

68-31

Kagan (2010)

63-37

Gorsuch (2017)

54-45

Kavanaugh (2018)

50-48

Barrett (2020)

52-48

* This was not true in the case of Robert H. Bork, nominated by President Ronald Reagan in 1987. Bork’s critics generally conceded that he was qualified but objected to him on ideological grounds. Then-Senate Judiciary Chairman Joe Biden used his opposition to Bork as the driving point of his campaign for the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination. The nomination of Clarence Thomas by President George H.W. Bush four years later largely revolved around questions of the nominee’s qualifications and allegations against him.

INSIGHT: Many of the most conservative senators voted for the most liberal Supreme Court nominees and vice versa.

Antonin Scalia was the key conservative on the court during his tenure, while Ruth Bader Ginsburg was the key liberal. Their nominations came just seven years apart, and there were 62 senators serving at the time of Scalia’s nomination who were still in the Senate for the Ginsburg nomination.

Among the senators who voted for both Scalia and Ginsburg:

  • Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del.
  • Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va.
  • Sen. Robert Dole, R-Kan.
  • Sen. John Glenn, D-Ohio
  • Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas
  • Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa
  • Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah
  • Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass.
  • Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.
  • Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt.
  • Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
  • Sen. Strom Thurmond, R-S.C.

INSIGHT: Since 2005, outside interest group spending on Supreme Court nominations, both for and against, has climbed steadily.

 

Spending*

Days between nomination and  vote

 Vote

Roberts (2005)

$1.5 million

39

78-22

Miers (2005)

$350,000

Withdrawn after 24 days

n/a

Alito (2005)

$2.2 million

82

58-42

Sotomayor (2009)

$1 million

66

68-31

Kagan (2010)

$1 million

87

63-37

Garland (2016)

$7 million

Expired after 293 days

n/a

Gorsuch (2017)

$13 million

65

54-45

Kavanaugh (2018)

$26 million

88

50-48

Barrett (2020)

$40 million

27

52-48

* Exact numbers are not available since spending laws have changed and many of the organizations did not disclose their full investment in any campaign. These totals are the minimum total; in some cases, the actual totals may have been higher.

INSIGHT: The most recent Supreme Court nominations have brought millions of dollars in advertising spending from groups supporting or opposing nominees.

 

Group

 

Nominee

 

Stance

 

Amount

Demand Justice (Sixteen Thirty Fund)

Barrett

Anti

$10,000,000

Judicial Crisis Network

Barrett

Pro

$10,000,000

Judicial Crisis Network

Kavanaugh

Pro

$10,000,000

Judicial Crisis Network

Gorsuch

Pro

$10,000,000

Judicial Crisis Network

Garland

Anti

$7,000,000

America First Policies

Barrett

Pro

$5,000,000

Club for Growth

Barrett

Pro

$5,000,000

Demand Justice (Sixteen Thirty Fund)

Kavanaugh

Anti

$5,000,000

Great America Alliance

Kavanaugh

Pro

$4,500,000

Heritage Action

Barrett

Pro

$3,500,000

CatholicVote.org

Barrett

Pro

$2,500,000

Turning Point USA

Barrett

Pro

$2,300,000

National Rifle Association

Kavanaugh

Pro

$1,250,000

American Civil Liberties Union

Kavanaugh

Anti

$1,200,000

Americans for Prosperity

Barrett

Pro

$1,000,000

National Rifle Association

Gorsuch

Pro

$1,000,000

 INSIGHT: As the polarization around Supreme Court nominations has gone up, public approval of the Court’s performance has declined.

Approve

Disapprove

2000

62%

29%

2005

56%

36%

2010

51%

39%

2015

49%

46%

2020

53%

43%

2021

40%

53%

Source: Gallup

Ryan Clancy is chief strategist at No Labels, where this was first published.

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