Drawing the lines: Delaware redistricting process awaits 2020 census numbers

By Glenn Rolfe
Posted 8/29/21

Better late than never.

Redistricting, the process of redrawing legislative areas based on the decennial U.S. census, is late in arriving following the 2020 count.

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Drawing the lines: Delaware redistricting process awaits 2020 census numbers

Posted

Better late than never.

Redistricting, the process of redrawing legislative areas based on the decennial U.S. census, is late in arriving following the 2020 count.

“Normally, census numbers come in in the spring. We are able to do the district lines, get the bills drafted and get them passed before June 30,” said Sen. Brian Pettyjohn, R-Georgetown, a member of the Senate’s minority caucus. “It didn’t happen this time. We got the total numbers for Delaware, but we didn’t get the census tract numbers, the granular numbers, that we need to draw the new lines.”

Speaker of the House Pete Schwartzkopf, D-Rehoboth Beach, said action will be coming soon.

“Unfortunately, this process is taking place much later than it previously has due to complications with the 2020 census,” he said. “But we’re committed to a process that involves the public and solicits their input, as well as that of other legislators of both parties. In the next few weeks, we’ll announce ways for the public to get involved and voice their suggestions.”

Later this month, after the first wave of more definitive 2020 census data arrives, the House and Senate majority and minority caucuses will get down to the nitty-gritty, utilizing Delaware’s numbers to draw boundaries for 21 Senate districts and 41 House districts.

“We’re basically waiting for the data … around the middle of August,” said Sen. David Sokola, D-Newark, a member of the Senate majority caucus. “It will not be the final data. It’s kind of in a format that is not as easy to use for the actual map-drawing as the final data that we expect to get in the middle of September.”

Rep. Schwartzkopf led the effort in the House for the last redistricting in 2011.

“I’m familiar with the challenges we face to meet all the guidelines. It’s not as simple as just drawing 41 House districts,” he said. “Once we get the data from the federal government, it will be inputted into a computer program, so we can see exactly where the population growth and loss has been over the past decade. We’re charged with drawing districts that are roughly equal in population, that follow natural boundaries or major roads whenever possible, that keep communities together and that adhere to the Voting Rights Act of 1965.”

Once the districts are finalized, the General Assembly will meet in a special session to approve maps for the House and Senate, which will then go to Gov. John Carney for his signature.

Sussex County was a big winner following the 2010 census and 2011 redistricting, gaining one Senate seat and a House seat through relocation.

At the starting line

The ball was scheduled to get rolling Friday. According to Dick Carter, director of special projects for the Senate majority caucus, personnel from the legislature and computer staff were to meet virtually to discuss the details of setting up a legislative redistricting website, which would be open to the public to offer comment.

Then, the initial census data is scheduled to be received by the states Aug. 15 or 16.

“It’s going to take about a week or so, or maybe two weeks, to get it all properly worked up, so it can be used with the redistricting software,” Mr. Carter said.

Countdown is on

This year, redistricting is up against the clock.

Joseph Fulgham, communications officer for the House of Representatives’ Republican caucus, said the delay from the census brings into play a 12-month residency requirement for candidates, which could be impacted if redistricting is not finalized by early November — a year in advance of the 2022 general election.

“That’s a problem for us because, in Delaware, if you are going to run for the House or the Senate, you have to have a one-year residency in the district in which you reside to run. So if those maps are not adopted until after — let’s say Nov. 15 — well, you don’t have a year,” said Mr. Fulgham. “The goal right now is to have the maps done and adopted prior to Nov. 1, so we have at least that one-year threshold in place prior to next year’s cycle.”

Sen. Sokola is optimistic that will happen.

“In talking with members of leadership of all four caucuses, the general consensus is we would like to have it done by November. I think there is going to be a good-faith effort to have that happen,” he said.

Rules/recommendations

In redistricting, the general rule of thumb is to keep districts compacted, not abstract, amid efforts to keep communities of similar demographics together.

Also, there is a stipulation in Delaware that each redistricted area should be plus or minus 5% from its population average.

“We’ve been given preliminary information. The specifics of the demographic data are very important because there are certain rules around creating minority/majority districts, minority-influenced districts,” said Sen. Sokola, who has participated in redistricting in 1991, 2001 and 2011. “There are recommendations around keeping communities together. In many cases, you can’t really do both (maintain demographics and keep communities together) — one would exclude the other.”

Public input

The League of Women Voters of Delaware, in partnership with American Civil Liberties Delaware, Common Cause Delaware, the Delaware Coalition for Open Government, the Southern Delaware Alliance for Racial Justice, the Civic League for New Castle County, Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority and Delaware Women for Inclusion, have been actively preparing for redistricting.

“We have been working hard to educate the public on the importance regarding redistricting and communities of interest,” said the LWV’s Kyra Hoffner.

Sen. Pettyjohn said lawmakers will appreciate the input.

“With all the tools that are going to be available to the public this time, people can draw maps and submit maps as public comment. With all the demographic information that is available, it will be a very public process this time — super-public,” he said.

Sen. Sokola added, “We would like to let the public have as much input as they want because they can have the data and draw maps. All of the software and all of the data will be publicly available.”

Mr. Fulgham said the Democrats, since they are in the majority, will play the biggest role.

“But whether or not those (public) comments are adopted and any tweaks … are made to the maps will be entirely at the discretion of the majority,” he said. “The Republicans have no realistic role in this process, other than to provide an alternative point of view.”

As part of its effort, in April, LWV offered a discussion panel about its People Powered Fair Maps campaign.

Sandy Spence, an LWV member who recently served as the organization’s president, emphasized the importance of redistricting.

“It is extremely important,” she said. “It can result in good legislators being redistricted out of their district. It can also result in redistricting good people in. It can also — and I don’t think it will happen here — but ultimately, it could change the party in power. It depends on how the thing is done and how transparent it is and how much the people in power can control things the way they want to.”

Majority rules

In the redistricting process, the bottom line is that the majority rules.

“It’s the democratic process, and the majority party tends to have a strong influence over how things are done,” said Sen. Sokola.

Milford Republican Rep. Bryan Shupe is hoping for fairness.

“At some point, they are going to have to follow the numbers and be fair to an extent,” he said. “But there is always — as human nature breaks into the process — them drawing the lines towards their potential victory in November.

“Typically, what happens is the four caucuses will meet, and they will discuss redistricting. They will draw the lines. But ultimately, it is up to the majority parties where they want to draw the lines.”

Efforts will be in play to avoid gerrymandering — manipulating boundaries as to favor one party or class — Sen. Sokola said, adding that sometimes that is tough to avoid.

Third-party initiative?

Through potential legislation, Rep. Shupe said he is leading an effort that would vastly change Delaware’s redistricting process.

“This has been a point of contention that I tried to bring up in the past. I’m actually drafting a piece of legislation right now with the Department of Elections, to come up for the next redistricting, to have a third party to do the redistricting process — so you don’t have politics injected into the process of redistricting,” he said.

“Obviously, that won’t take effect until 10 years from now, but I think now is the time, when we see redistricting taking place. Now is the time to have that conversation because what you are really going to have is the majority party drawing lines for the next five elections. And that happens with every party (in the majority).”

Speculation

Statewide, some are speculating that Sussex County again stands to possibly gain legislative clout.

“I would think that Sussex County gains at least one House seat, to be relocated from a place yet to be determined, and possibly a Senate seat,” said Sen. Pettyjohn. “We’ll see what happens when the county data comes back and the data comes back from census tracts.”

Rep. Shupe agreed.

“What I think you will see (is) because of the numbers, there is no way to avoid that the state of Delaware will lose a House of Representative and potentially Senate seat in the north, probably around the city of Wilmington,” said Rep. Shupe, who anticipates that seats lost up north will wind up in the beach area. “And that is just because of where the population has shifted throughout the state of Delaware. You could potentially see another one around the middle of the state.”

Scott Goss, communications director for the Senate majority caucus, thought otherwise.

“It’s still too early to make bold (predictions) about what the districts are going to look like (or) who’s going to get a new district where,” Mr. Goss said. “Anyone who says they know where the districts are going … doesn’t know where the districts are going.”

Sen. Sokola explained further: “We got the state population data earlier this year. When you compare what happened to the state population with other publicly available numbers, like voter registration and stuff — and that’s not necessarily always an accurate reflection of the number of people in the district — the summary that I heard was that, with respect to the Senate, Sussex probably added about a half of a district.”

Also factoring in are several county-border districts, including the 18th Senatorial District held by Republican Dave Wilson. It includes southern Kent County and northern Sussex County.

“It’s half in Kent and half in Sussex,” Sen. Sokola said. “So is Milford, part in Kent and part in Sussex. You might want to keep Milford together. But any part of Kent County that is out of Milford would probably have to be pulled out of that district.”

Regardless, Mr. Fulgham called the process “one-sided.”

“There is no collaboration that goes on here,” he said. “We will wind up drawing maps, both the House and the Senate Republicans. We will draw our own maps based on the numbers that the U.S. Census gives us, but those maps are largely going to be a theoretical counterpoint to whatever the Democrats produce. And whatever the Democrats produce are the maps that are ultimately going to be adopted.”

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